The CFR has fallen substantially from its peak in April. We now present data suggesting that the CFR as of the 4th of August stood at around 1.5%, having fallen from over 6% six weeks earlier.
The recent publication of statistics based on deaths following a COVID-19 positive test in the last 28 days allows the calculation of a daily-updated case fatality ratio (CFR) that better reflects the current state of the epidemic.
The distribution of lagged cases stops falling and begins to rise around the 22nd of July, indicating when we would expect the deaths series to rise if cases were as fatal as previously.
The trend in deaths, however, continues downwards, indicating that the recent increase in cases is not leading to increased mortality.